From February 28th to March 5th, 2026, the Center for Strategic Politics conducted an English-language survey of 491 likely Democratic voters in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District using SMS to collect web responses. Respondents outside the sampled population were screened by self-identification. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely Democratic primary voters by age, race, and gender. The margin of error is ±4.42%.
Jared Moskowitz, the incumbent FL-23 representative, would be the heavy favorite over progressive challenger Oliver Larkin if the Democratic primary were held today. But new polling indicates that South Florida voters are out of sync with Moskowitz on a number of key issues. When voters hear balanced biographies for both candidates, Oliver Larkin takes a commanding lead over Jared Moskowitz.
Key Takeaways
Head to Head
Jared Moskowitz, the incumbent, maintains a commanding lead when voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. However, even taking the margin of error into account, Moskowitz does not hit 50%— a weak position for an incumbent candidate. Even though Moskowitz is an extremely high-profile incumbent, almost half of the electorate is undecided when presented a choice between him and a currently lower-profile challenger.
When respondents are presented with short, positive biographies for both Moskowitz and Larkin, the situation changes dramatically. While Moskowitz keeps most of his support, almost two-thirds of undecided voters shift to Larkin. This leaves Oliver Larkin with a significant lead over Jared Moskowitz when voters know both candidates.
When respondents are subsequently presented with short, negative biographies of both candidates, an additional effect arises. While Larkin’s position is not significantly changed by this additional information, Moskowitz continues to bleed support— now to undecided. This indicates that a portion of Moskowitz’s base is directly vulnerable to negative attacks on his record of working with Republicans and his support for interventionism.
Issues
Voters in FL-23 are very open to re-examining the United States’ relationship with Israel. 30% of respondents want to fully cease US military aid to Israel, while another 33% want to condition/reduce aid. Only 21% of voters want to keep aid at current levels. When almost two-thirds of FL-23 Democratic voters want to reduce military aid to Israel, it is clear that Jared Moskowitz is severely out-of-step with the views of his constituents.
Voters also want to see candidates oppose military strikes on Iran by a 50-point margin. Only 14% of FL-23 primary voters agree with Moskowitz that the US should be conducting military strikes on Iran.
The full poll, including crosstabs, is available here.
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