On August 5th, 2026, the Center for Strategic Politics conducted an English-language survey of 403 likely Democratic voters in Florida’s 25th Congressional District using SMS to collect web responses. Respondents outside the sampled population were screened by self-identification and voter file match. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely Democratic primary voters by age, race, gender, geography, and education. The margin of error is ±4.87%. This survey was commissioned by Oliver for Congress.
With under two weeks to election day, Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz are in a statistical tie to claim the Democratic nomination in Florida’s new 25th Congressional District. With 20% of voters still undecided, Larkin has a double digit lead among likely voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots, and with only a small number of ballots already cast, this race is up for the taking by whoever can best mobilize their supporters and persuade the remaining undecideds. The recent $650k infusion of pro-Moskowitz outside spending confirms the competitiveness of the race that this newly-released poll from the Center for Strategic Politics finds.
Key Takeaways
Head-to-head
When combining responses from those who have already voted and those still waiting to vote, Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz are in a statistical tie.
But when separating responses between those two groups, a significant divergence appears.
While Larkin enjoys a 10% lead with those who haven’t yet voted, Moskowitz has almost two-thirds of the small proportion of people who have already voted early. Oliver Larkin’s path to victory relies on mobilizing his later-voting base to the greatest extent possible.
Issues
AIPAC support has become a deep vulnerability in districts around the country and FL-25 is no different. 43% of FL-25 Democrats are less likely to support an AIPAC-backed candidate, only 15% are more likely to, while another 42% either feel neutral or aren’t sure how they feel about AIPAC.
Support for military aid to Israel is even less popular than AIPAC, with 68% of FL-25 Democrats saying they want to either reduce or cease all military aid to Israel.
Candidate Buzz
We asked respondents to optionally provide a statement on what they’ve recently heard, seen, or read about both of the candidates, then transformed these statements into word clouds.
Oliver Larkin
The words pedophile, Trump, and Fox appear frequently due to a recent appearance by Larkin on Fox News in which he said “We need to hold this pedophile Donald Trump accountable”. Clips of this appearance have spread widely on social media in the past week.
Jared Moskowitz
The word DeSantis appears frequently due to Moskowitz’s previous identification as a “DeSantis Democrat”. The words Israel and AIPAC appear frequently due to Moskowitz’s self-identification as strongly pro-Israel.
The full poll, including crosstabs, is available here.
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